Thursday, May 29, 2008

New blog, new thinking

The blog has been down for a while due to lack of interest, but it is obviously up again. I've been doing some research and come up with the conclusion that since the U.S. downturn is mainly consumer-driven and the CCI has shown it's lowest point in several years the GDP development will not be, as FED has stated, a V-formed graph. Earlier big consumer-driven problems in different economies has been followed up by a U-, W- and sometimes L-formed GDP advance. This means that the period of business decline will be longer than the general public has expected and therefore so will the stockmarket.

Generally in this bear market, I advice people not to buy stocks in any industry based on a quote of Jesse Livermore; "I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up." Still, there are exceptions. There are always winners, even in bear markets and this time raw materials are the keyword. This afternoon important oil statistics will be revealed and will effect the oilprice in the shortterm, but in the longterm, the price can only go one way as seen over the last year. North is the way and the rest of the commodity sector will follow it.

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